Dongwu Securities: Sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations in September and stabilized at the bottom of the profit bottom of the industrial chain

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that in September, the country benefited from the local government's automobile consumption stimulus and the launch of new models. New energy vehicle sales were 1.287 million units, an increase of 42%/17% over the same period last year, exceeding expectations. Looking at production schedules, benefiting from overseas energy storage demand and automobile consumption incentives, continued to grow 3-5% month-on-month in October, and the market was fully anticipated; on the profit side, the profit bottom of the main Q2 industry chain stabilized, and the leading advantage was obvious. 6F and lithium iron phosphate prices bottomed out first, and are expected to rebound definitively in 25H2, starting with Ningde (300750.SZ), BYD (002594.SZ), Kodali (002850.SZ), and Tianci (002850.SZ) 2709.SZ), Shota ( 001301.SZ) and other leading lithium battery companies.

The main views of Dongwu Securities are as follows:

In September, sales of new energy vehicles were 1.287 million units, +42%/17% YoY, exceeding market expectations. According to China Automobile Association data, NEV sales in December '24 were 1.287,000 units, +42%/17% YoY, penetration rate 45.8%, +14.2/+1.0pct YoY. The cumulative sales volume from January to September 2024 was 8.32 million units, an increase of 32.5% over the previous year, and the cumulative penetration rate was 38.6%. The production of electric vehicles in September was 1.307 million units, +48.8%/+19.7% year on month, and cumulative production from January to September 2024 was 8.316 million units, +31.7% year over year.

The share of plug-in hybrids decreased month-on-month, and the share of pure electric A00 and A0 class models increased. In September, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.232,000 units, +48%/+17% year over month, penetration rate was 49%, up 0.2 pct month over month. The cumulative sales volume from January to September reached 7.831 million units, an increase of 32.5% over the same period. Pure electric passenger cars sold 712,000 units in September, +26%/+21%, accounting for an increase of 2 pcts; of which the A00 class sold 136,000 units in September, accounting for 19%, 2pct; the cumulative sales volume in January-September was 774,000 units, accounting for 17%; the A0 class sold 169,000 units, accounting for 24%; the cumulative sales volume in January-September was 1.06 million units, accounting for 23%; the A-class sold 148,000 units, accounting for 21%, down 1pct; Cumulative sales volume from January to September was 920,000 units, accounting for 20%; B/C Class sales were 248,000 units, accounting for 35%, down 2 pcts; cumulative sales volume from January to September was 1.684 million units, accounting for 38%; plug-in hybrid passenger cars sold 508,000 units in September, up 87% year on year, up 10% month on month, accounting for 42%, down 3 pcts.

NEV exports rose 1% in September, and Tesla's exports accounted for 29%. In September, NEV exports were 111,000 units, up 16% year on year and 1% month on month. Of these, 105,000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported, +19%/6% year over month, of which Tesla exported 30,500 units in September, accounting for 29%.

Investment advice: In September, the country benefited from the local government's automobile consumption stimulus and the launch of new models. The sales volume was 1.287 million units, up 42%/17% from the same period last year, exceeding expectations. The annual sales volume was upgraded to nearly 12.5 million units, an increase of 30% +. In September, nine European countries sold 230,000 units of electric vehicles, +7%/84% month-on-month, with significant month-on-month improvement. On a year-on-year basis, due to Germany's low base in September 23, the year-on-year correction, 25-year carbon emissions assessment + new vehicle cycle, it is expected that H2 will begin to improve; in September, the US was affected by natural disasters, and sold 127,000 electric vehicles, -3%/-15% compared to the same period last month. The performance is weak. It is expected to resume in October-November; in terms of production, benefiting from overseas energy storage demand and the stimulus of automobile consumption, continued to increase by 3-5% in late October. The low season has begun, and the market is already Full expectations; on the profit side, the profit bottom of the main Q2 industry chain stabilized, and the leading advantage was obvious. 6F and lithium iron phosphate prices bottomed out and are expected to rebound definitively in 25H2, leading lithium battery companies such as Ningde, BYD, Yiwei, Yuneng, Kodali, Tianci, Shangtai, and Putailai.

Risk warning: Electric vehicle sales fall short of expectations, and raw material prices fluctuate sharply