Estimating The Fair Value Of Huafon Microfibre (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300180)

Simply Wall St · 10/16 06:46

Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Huafon Microfibre (Shanghai) is CN¥11.57 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of CN¥9.97 suggests Huafon Microfibre (Shanghai) is potentially trading close to its fair value
  • Huafon Microfibre (Shanghai)'s peers are currently trading at a premium of 3,870% on average

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Huafon Microfibre (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300180) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Huafon Microfibre (Shanghai)

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥668.8m CN¥792.2m CN¥901.3m CN¥995.9m CN¥1.08b CN¥1.15b CN¥1.21b CN¥1.27b CN¥1.32b CN¥1.37b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 25.13% Est @ 18.45% Est @ 13.77% Est @ 10.49% Est @ 8.20% Est @ 6.60% Est @ 5.47% Est @ 4.69% Est @ 4.13% Est @ 3.75%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.8% CN¥620 CN¥682 CN¥719 CN¥737 CN¥740 CN¥732 CN¥716 CN¥695 CN¥672 CN¥646

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥7.0b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.4b× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.8%– 2.9%) = CN¥28b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥28b÷ ( 1 + 7.8%)10= CN¥13b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥20b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥10.0, the company appears about fair value at a 14% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
SZSE:300180 Discounted Cash Flow October 16th 2024

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Huafon Microfibre (Shanghai) as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.995. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Huafon Microfibre (Shanghai), we've compiled three further aspects you should explore:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Huafon Microfibre (Shanghai) that you should be aware of before investing here.
  2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.