Open Source Securities: Online alcohol channel sales performance is good, and popular product performance is divided

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that September benefited from a boost from the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, and that online alcohol channel sales performance was good. Recently, the country's multiple benefits have stimulated economic recovery, and medium- to long-term expectations for food and beverages have become optimistic, but in the short term, companies may still face the risk of declining performance. Among popular products, more attention is paid to casual snacks with relatively good fundamentals. Currently, the low point of operation during the year has passed. Category attributes determine that consumption scenario stimulation has had a great impact on sales. The peak season of Spring Festival sales falls in the fourth quarter of the year. It is expected that the performance of various booming racetrack snack companies will maintain a high level of growth throughout the year.

Alcohol: Online sales increased, and the concentration of liquor and beer increased month-on-month

In September 2024, the online sales volume of the Ali liquor industry reached 2.42 billion yuan, an increase of 83.7% over the previous year. In terms of split volume price, sales volume increased 22.2% year on year, and average sales price increased 9.8% year on year. Domestic liquor sales in the sub-sector performed relatively well in September, with a year-on-year increase of 116.8%. Domestic liquor accounts for the highest share of online sales, reaching 80.9%. The concentration of leading brands in the liquor industry was +18.3pct month-on-month to 61.8%. The concentration of leading brands in the beer industry was +0.6pct to 33.3% month-on-month.

Food: Snack food sales declined, while food, oil and fast food sales increased

Snack food: In September 2024, the online sales of the Alibaba snack food industry reached 4.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%. In terms of split volume price, sales volume decreased 4.1% year on year, and average sales price decreased 15.0% year on year. Dried soybean products performed well in the sub-sector, with a year-on-year increase of 12.2%. The concentration of leading brands in the snack food industry was +1.7pct to 10.0% month-on-month.

Food, oil and fast food: In September 2024, the online sales volume of the Alibaba food and oil fast food industry reached 2.81 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% over the previous year. In terms of split volume price, sales volume increased 19.1% year on year, and average sales price decreased 13.0% year on year. The condiment category performed well in September 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 16.8%. The concentration of leading brands in the grain, oil and fast food industry was +2.4pct to 16.0% month-on-month.

Drink preparation: Online sales of dairy products and packaged beverages have all increased

Dairy products: In September 2024, the online sales volume of the Alibaba dairy industry reached 1.52 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5% over the previous year. In terms of split volume price, sales volume increased 13.6% year on year, and average sales price decreased 6.2% year on year. Looking at the molecular industry, camel milk performed well in September 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 95.1%. Room temperature milk accounted for a relatively high online sales volume of 42.9%. The concentration of leading brands in the dairy industry was -10.3pct to 36.7% month-on-month.

Brewed muesli: In September 2024, the online sales volume of Ali's brewed muesli industry reached 100 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%. In terms of split volume price, sales volume decreased 6.8% year on year, and average sales price decreased 13.9% year on year. The concentration of leading brands in the brewed cereal industry was +2.8pct to 35.5% month-on-month.

Packaged beverages: In September 2024, the online sales volume of the Alibaba packaged beverage industry reached 700 million yuan, an increase of 10.5% over the previous year. In terms of split volume price, sales volume increased 38.9% year on year, and average sales price decreased 20.4% year on year. Looking at the molecular industry, carbonated beverages performed well in September 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 46.2%; fruit-flavored beverages followed, with a year-on-year increase of 20.2%. Fruit and vegetable juice products account for a relatively high online sales volume, reaching 16.4%.

Target aspect: It is recommended to look at the industry from the perspective of steady growth. In terms of alcohol, focus on leading sectors such as Wuliangye (000858.SZ), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH), and Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH). In terms of popular products, it is recommended to focus on Ganyuan Food (002991.SZ), where revenue is growing steadily and the overseas strategy is beginning to bear fruit.

Risk warning: Macroeconomic performance falls short of expectations, food safety risks, and increased industry competitiveness.