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Wall Street JournalCalculating The Fair Value Of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (LON:IHG)
Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, InterContinental Hotels Group fair value estimate is UK£87.64
- InterContinental Hotels Group's UK£84.24 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
- Our fair value estimate is 19% higher than InterContinental Hotels Group's analyst price target of US$73.70
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (LON:IHG) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for InterContinental Hotels Group
The Model
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$757.2m | US$828.3m | US$881.0m | US$1.04b | US$1.12b | US$1.19b | US$1.24b | US$1.29b | US$1.34b | US$1.37b |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x6 | Analyst x6 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 7.75% | Est @ 6.00% | Est @ 4.78% | Est @ 3.93% | Est @ 3.33% | Est @ 2.91% |
| Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.9% | US$702 | US$712 | US$702 | US$767 | US$766 | US$753 | US$731 | US$704 | US$675 | US$643 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$7.2b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.9%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.4b× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (7.9%– 1.9%) = US$24b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$24b÷ ( 1 + 7.9%)10= US$11b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$18b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£84.2, the company appears about fair value at a 3.9% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at InterContinental Hotels Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.228. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for InterContinental Hotels Group
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the British market.
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For InterContinental Hotels Group, we've put together three pertinent factors you should consider:
- Risks: Take risks, for example - InterContinental Hotels Group has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
- Future Earnings: How does IHG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.