Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | The State Information Office will hold a press conference on the situation relating to promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Continuous real estate valuation repair (with concept stocks)

The Information Office of the State Council will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on October 17, 2024 (Thursday). Ni Hong, Minister of Housing, Urban-Rural Development, and heads of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the People's Bank of China, and the State Financial Supervision and Administration, will be invited to explain the situation in promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market and answer questions from reporters.

After the 11th Golden Week holiday sales set a new record, many housing enterprises seized the opportunity. For example, the recent opening of real estate also achieved good results. At the same time, news broke in many regions that the new market was sold out as soon as it opened. At the same time, judging from real-time transaction data and online signing data in the property market, the number of single-day contracts in Tier 1 and 2 cities continues to reach new highs, driving residents' confidence in buying homes continues to rise. Looking forward to the future, many industry insiders said that recent multiple benefits have led to a marked increase in market activity, residents' confidence in buying property continues to recover, and the new policy is expected to continue to show results, speeding up the process of stopping the decline and stabilizing real estate.

According to a research report released by GF Securities, as of October 6, 2024, the national four-limit policy limit index has fallen to a record low, and the room for future policy relaxation will mainly be concentrated in high-energy cities. The strength of current policies has improved markedly, and the fundamentals after the New Deal (11th period) echo strong. The sector not only continued to catalyze policy expectations in the fourth quarter, but also had an opportunity to verify the impact of policies on fundamentals. Under current policy strength, it is expected that the mid-term trend of real estate companies' overall market value restoration may refer to 1xNAV, which is equivalent to an average of 1.4xPb. It is recommended to increase the real estate sector allocation ratio.

The Everbright Securities Research Report points out that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, domestic real estate policies continue to be optimized, property management risk factors have gradually been clarified, and sector allocation values have been highlighted. It is recommended to focus on three main lines:

1) “Valuation repair”: Focus on the decline in risk premiums brought about by the recovery in liquidity in the real estate industry and the gradual settlement of credit risk of private housing enterprises.

2) “Balanced development”: Long-term optimism for property management companies with strong independent development capabilities, high project quality, and strong operational capacity and profitability.

3) “Steady state-owned enterprises”: Steady development of state-owned property management companies and low risk bring valuation premiums.

Real estate-related industry chain enterprises:

China Overseas Development (00688), C&D International Group (01908), Yuexiu Real Estate (00123), Greentown China (03900), Sunac China (01918), Longhu Group (00960), Ocean Group (03377), Vanke Enterprise (02202), China Resources Land (01109), Xuhui Holdings (00884), etc.;

Property management companies: China Resources Vientiane Life (01209), Poly Property (06049), CNOOC Properties (02669), Midea Real Estate (03990), etc.

Housing agency: Seashell-W (02423), Country Garden Service (06098)