Why Coty (COTY) Stock Is Falling Today

What Happened?

Shares of beauty products company Coty (NYSE:COTY) fell 12.6% in the morning session after the company reported underwhelming preliminary earnings guidance for the Q1'2025 quarter. Coty lowered the Q1 LFL (like-for-like) sales growth estimate to approximately 4-5% (vs. the previous estimate of 6% LFL growth). 

The company observed a slowdown in the US beauty market in the second half of Q1. In addition, management called out tight inventory control by retailers, which resulted in Coty's sell-in (products sold to retailers) lagging behind sell-out (products sold to consumers) in several markets, including the U.S., Australia, China, and Travel Retail Asia (each market accounts for only a low single-digit percentage of Coty's business). Similarly, Q1'2025 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be roughly flat to moderately lower compared to the previous year. 

To manage the impact of the revisions, the company announced cost-cutting plans to deliver savings in excess of the initial FY25 target of approximately $75M. Overall, the update points to a tougher operating environment and will likely cause investors to lower their optimism.

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What The Market Is Telling Us

Coty’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 5 moves greater than 5% over the last year. Moves this big are rare for Coty and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business.

Coty is down 33.5% since the beginning of the year, and at $8.12 per share, it is trading 38.8% below its 52-week high of $13.26 from February 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Coty’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $782.01.

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