The Open RAN Market Dropped 83% in 2024; It Will Grow Back

New Mobile Experts forecast shows the transition to 'brownfield' networks

CAMPBELL, Calif., Oct. 15, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Mobile Experts released a new forecast for Open RAN this week, with the most bizarre market growth profile ever seen in the wireless market. After great success with Open RAN deployment in greenfield networks such as DISH and Rakuten, O-RAN deployment screeched to a halt during 2024.

At the same time, major mobile operators started to make commitments to Open RAN during 2024 which will lead to new revenue growth in the 2025-2026 timeframe.

"Our revenue chart for Open RAN looks like the Grand Canyon," commented Joe Madden, Principal Analyst at Mobile Experts. "All of the big clean-sheet O-RAN deployments have finished their major buildout phase, so now the market will transition to upgrades on legacy networks. But legacy networks will use Open RAN differently. Many people don't understand why legacy mobile operators are rejecting the original Open RAN business model and are choosing a Single Software business model instead. This report provides clear guidance on why the market is fundamentally changing."

The new report lays out the expected revenue in hardware (radios, servers, antennas) and software (vDU, vCU, RIC, xApp, rApp, and dApp) through 2029, as major operators like AT&T, Vodafone, Verizon, Telus, DoCoMo, and others begin to buy mobile infrastructure from alternative vendors.

This report is a companion to related research on Virtual RAN, in which Mobile Experts investigated the separation of hardware and software products to 'cloudify' the cellular infrastructure market. The famous Mobile Experts method of counting radio components to track hardware is used here to get precision in the forecast, and on the software side the MEXP analysts interviewed more than 20 different parties in order to assess the adoption and pricing potential for O-RAN software.

"The US Government is pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into Open RAN," continued Mr. Madden. "But sadly, the biggest challenge of Open RAN will not be addressed by NOFO and other government grants. Each grant will be too small to fix the fundamental economic challenge of Open RU hardware. The market will solve the problem anyway, without government help. Get our report for the details."

Subscribers to Open RAN 2024 will receive:

• Full access to the 40-page Open RAN 2024 report;
• Clear breakdowns of the 5-year forecast in an Excel spreadsheet;
• Detailed technical background and architectural analysis;
• Insight into the pace of upcoming projects with legacy operators; and
• Access to the analysts behind the reports.

To learn more about this report, click here.

About Mobile Experts Inc.:

Mobile Experts techno-market analysis is used by more than 150 suppliers in the mobile/wireless industry, as well as multiple mobile operators, hyperscalers, and managed service providers. MEXP was the only analyst firm to correctly predict the failure of femtocells and the use of small cells for capacity in 2011, and was the only firm to predict the rise of 5G FWA as early as 2015.

Mobile Experts combines a deep-dive technical approach with hard-nosed economic analysis to predict the long-term future of the mobile industry. Recent publications focus on Industrial Private Cellular, Macro and Massive MIMO Base Stations, Virtual RAN, AI impact on RAN Capacity, Small Cells, 5G Millimeter Wave, Private Cellular Managed Services, and more.

Contact:

Rachel Winningham

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www.mobile-experts.net

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SOURCE Mobile Experts Inc