Masimo Corporation's (NASDAQ:MASI) 28% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St · 10/15 10:04

Masimo Corporation (NASDAQ:MASI) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 28% share price jump in the last month. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 88% in the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies operating in the United States' Medical Equipment industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 3.1x, you may consider Masimo as a stock to potentially avoid with its 3.8x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Check out our latest analysis for Masimo

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NasdaqGS:MASI Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry October 15th 2024

How Masimo Has Been Performing

Masimo hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. It might be that many expect the dour revenue performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Masimo.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Masimo would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 7.9% decrease to the company's top line. Even so, admirably revenue has lifted 71% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 6.3% per annum during the coming three years according to the ten analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 9.1% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.

In light of this, it's alarming that Masimo's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Masimo shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

It comes as a surprise to see Masimo trade at such a high P/S given the revenue forecasts look less than stellar. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about this 1 warning sign we've spotted with Masimo.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.