How will the war in the Middle East affect the US election? Harris may pay for it!

As the US presidential election approaches, analysts warn that Israel's expanded military action in the Middle East may pose a threat to the Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign. Although foreign policy is generally not the primary focus of American voters, Israel's protracted war in Gaza and the bombing of countries such as Lebanon have raised widespread questions about America's role in this conflict.

The Biden administration is a staunch supporter of Israel, but this policy has sparked divisions within the Democratic Party, particularly among Arab-American voters, some of whom have turned against the party. Against this backdrop of division, the election campaign between Harris and Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump showed an unusually tense situation. The disappointment of Arab voters, particularly in key states like Michigan, may cause some voters to choose not to vote in the November election, which in turn affects Harris's chances of winning.

The growing importance of foreign policy to voters

Traditionally, American voters did not consider foreign policy as a primary consideration in voting. But as the war between Israel and Gaza intensified, and air strikes on Lebanon became more frequent, people began to pay more attention to America's foreign policy, particularly the role of the Middle East. Israel's war against Gaza has been going on for a year and has caused extensive loss of life, many of them women and children. The conflict has also affected the domestic political climate in the US. In particular, the Biden administration's strong support for Israel has sparked dissatisfaction among Arab American voters.

Jim Zogby (Jim Zogby), co-founder of the Arab American Institute, pointed out that Arab voters supported the Democratic Party at a 2:1 ratio during the second term of the Obama administration, but now support for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party is almost evenly divided. Zogby attributed the shift to the Biden administration's support for the war in Gaza, a position he believes has left many voters disappointed and angry.

The disappointment of this group of voters stems not only from the Biden administration's policies, but also from their belief that Harris has failed to distance himself from Biden in terms of foreign policy. Although Biden's performance in the war in Gaza raised voters' questions about his age and ability, after Harris succeeded Biden as the Democratic candidate, she declined to express support for stopping arms supplies on several occasions and insisted on the same position as Biden. This series of measures failed to appease voters who expected Harris to take a more humane stance, further weakening her approval rating among Arab voters.

Warning signs of voter loss

According to a September poll by the Arab American Institute, Harris and Trump's approval ratings among Arab voters were almost equal, at 41% and 42%, respectively. This is a warning sign for the Democratic Party, especially considering that Biden won 59% of the Arab vote in 2020. Biden's strong performance at the time was aided by his opposition to Trump's tough foreign policy, particularly on Israel. However, with Biden's withdrawal, many voters had hoped that Harris would bring a new direction in foreign policy, but this expectation proved unfulfilled.

At the Democratic National Convention in August of this year, Harris' campaign was criticized for refusing to allow a Palestinian American to speak out about the suffering of the people of Gaza. The move further weakened Harris' support base within this group.

Many Arab voters were disappointed with the Democratic Party, particularly the Harris campaign's failure to take a tougher stand calling for a cessation of arms transfers. Some voters even think that refusing to vote for Harris may be a way to express their dissatisfaction with current foreign policy. However, some voters are concerned that Trump's re-election may have a more negative impact on the situation in Palestine. Trump has also previously publicly expressed support for Israel's “completion of the mission to Gaza” and threatened to expel foreign students supporting the Palestinian protests.

Swing state voters are also fiercely divided

While the Israeli issue may not be the primary focus of all voters, Arab-Americans' views on the war in Gaza will have a significant impact on the election results in some key swing states. One of these key states is Michigan, which has the second-largest Arab population in the US, with around 392,700 Arab residents. As the state's election situation is extremely tense, Harris is only marginally ahead of Trump, which means that the voting behavior of Arab voters may directly determine the state's election results.

Michigan's Arab voter community is not an “iron plate,” and there are intense differences within them about how to use their votes to influence them. Some voters advocated warning future candidates by refusing to vote, showing that Arab voters cannot be ignored. Others believe that Trump's re-election will be a more serious threat to the situation in Palestine, so even if they are unhappy with Harris, they still don't want to see Trump win.

One organization trying to balance these views is the “Uncommitted National Movement (Uncommitted National Movement),” which called on voters to maintain a “no statement” position when voting during the primary election rather than supporting any candidate. Now, as the election approaches, the organization continues to oppose Harris's campaign, while also clearly opposing Trump's re-election. A spokesperson for the organization said in a video posted this week: “As a Palestinian American, the current administration's handling of this genocide is infuriating and disappointing, but the reality is that the situation may get worse. No one wants Trump to be elected more than Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu because this will be his passport to wipe Palestine.”

The challenges of complicating the situation in the Middle East

In addition to domestic election dynamics, the further escalation of the situation in the Middle East also added more uncertainty to the final stage of the US election. In early October, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel in retaliation for the assassination of the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Israel launched ground operations in southern Lebanon and continued air raids in the region. In the future, it is expected that Israel may take further action against Iran.

These actions have increased the risk that the situation in the Middle East will escalate into a full-scale conflict between Israel and Iran. This is a concern not only for the Middle East region, but also for American voters. According to a Pew Research Center survey in September, 44% of Americans expressed extreme concern about the Middle East conflict spreading to other countries, and 40% feared that the US military might be forced to step in more.

For Harris, the complicated situation in the Middle East brought more challenges to her campaign. Although the Democratic Party has made no significant adjustments in foreign policy, voters' views have changed. Zogby pointed out that young voters and people of color are paying increasing attention to the Palestinian issue, and the pro-Palestinian movement has become part of social justice concerns. However, the Democratic Party is not fully aware of these changes and may lose support among key voter groups as a result.

Overall, as the US election approaches, one of the biggest challenges of the Harris campaign is how to appease disappointed Arab voters in foreign policy, particularly on Israel. Although her policy positions within the Democratic Party have always been consistent with Biden, voters' concerns about the situation in the Middle East and reaction to the war in Gaza will be one of the key factors in determining whether she can win a key swing state. If she is unable to make foreign policy adjustments or respond to voters' expectations, the absence of Arab voters could pose a major threat to her campaign.