Is IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited (NSE:IRB) Trading At A 36% Discount?

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for IRB Infrastructure Developers is ₹91.83 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• IRB Infrastructure Developers is estimated to be 36% undervalued based on current share price of ₹58.63
• Our fair value estimate is 27% higher than IRB Infrastructure Developers' analyst price target of ₹72.17

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited (NSE:IRB) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for IRB Infrastructure Developers

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹33.0b	₹34.6b	₹47.0b	₹53.9b	₹60.6b	₹67.1b	₹73.5b	₹79.8b	₹86.3b	₹92.9b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Est @ 14.84%	Est @ 12.40%	Est @ 10.69%	Est @ 9.49%	Est @ 8.65%	Est @ 8.07%	Est @ 7.66%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 15%	₹28.6k	₹26.0k	₹30.7k	₹30.6k	₹29.8k	₹28.6k	₹27.2k	₹25.7k	₹24.1k	₹22.5k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹274b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 6.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 15%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹93b× (1 + 6.7%) ÷ (15%– 6.7%) = ₹1.2t

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹1.2t÷ ( 1 + 15%)¹⁰= ₹281b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹555b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹58.6, the company appears quite undervalued at a 36% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at IRB Infrastructure Developers as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 15%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.257. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for IRB Infrastructure Developers

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For IRB Infrastructure Developers, we've put together three relevant items you should consider:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for IRB Infrastructure Developers (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.
2. Future Earnings: How does IRB's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NSEI every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.