Pulling back 4.8% this week, Taiwan Cogeneration's TWSE:8926) five-year decline in earnings may be coming into investors focus

Simply Wall St · 10/14 22:24

If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you'd hope to be making a profit. Better yet, you'd like to see the share price move up more than the market average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Taiwan Cogeneration Corporation (TWSE:8926) share price is up 58% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Looking at the last year alone, the stock is up 10%.

In light of the stock dropping 4.8% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

View our latest analysis for Taiwan Cogeneration

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, Taiwan Cogeneration actually saw its EPS drop 1.2% per year.

So it's hard to argue that the earnings per share are the best metric to judge the company, as it may not be optimized for profits at this point. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

In fact, the dividend has increased over time, which is a positive. Maybe dividend investors have helped support the share price.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
TWSE:8926 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 14th 2024

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Taiwan Cogeneration the TSR over the last 5 years was 102%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Taiwan Cogeneration shareholders are up 15% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 15% a year, over half a decade) look better. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Taiwan Cogeneration better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Taiwan Cogeneration you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Taiwanese exchanges.