Are Investors Undervaluing Realtek Semiconductor Corp. (TWSE:2379) By 21%?

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Realtek Semiconductor is NT$610 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of NT$485 suggests Realtek Semiconductor is potentially 21% undervalued
• Analyst price target for 2379 is NT$581 which is 4.8% below our fair value estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Realtek Semiconductor Corp. (TWSE:2379) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Realtek Semiconductor

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (NT$, Millions)	NT$17.9b	NT$20.1b	NT$20.5b	NT$20.9b	NT$21.2b	NT$21.5b	NT$21.8b	NT$22.1b	NT$22.3b	NT$22.6b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x6	Analyst x3	Est @ 2.13%	Est @ 1.80%	Est @ 1.56%	Est @ 1.40%	Est @ 1.29%	Est @ 1.21%	Est @ 1.15%	Est @ 1.11%
Present Value (NT$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.5%	NT$16.7k	NT$17.4k	NT$16.5k	NT$15.6k	NT$14.8k	NT$13.9k	NT$13.1k	NT$12.4k	NT$11.6k	NT$10.9k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = NT$143b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.5%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = NT$23b× (1 + 1.0%) ÷ (7.5%– 1.0%) = NT$351b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= NT$351b÷ ( 1 + 7.5%)¹⁰= NT$170b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is NT$313b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of NT$485, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 21% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Realtek Semiconductor as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.340. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Realtek Semiconductor

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Realtek Semiconductor, we've put together three essential aspects you should explore:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 1 warning sign for Realtek Semiconductor we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does 2379's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Taiwanese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.