There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Nature Holdings (KOSDAQ:298540) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on Nature Holdings is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.11 = ₩49b ÷ (₩662b - ₩222b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
So, Nature Holdings has an ROCE of 11%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Luxury industry average of 7.3% it's much better.
See our latest analysis for Nature Holdings
In the above chart we have measured Nature Holdings' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Nature Holdings for free.
When we looked at the ROCE trend at Nature Holdings, we didn't gain much confidence. Over the last five years, returns on capital have decreased to 11% from 54% five years ago. Meanwhile, the business is utilizing more capital but this hasn't moved the needle much in terms of sales in the past 12 months, so this could reflect longer term investments. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.
On a side note, Nature Holdings has done well to pay down its current liabilities to 34% of total assets. So we could link some of this to the decrease in ROCE. Effectively this means their suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of the business, which reduces some elements of risk. Since the business is basically funding more of its operations with it's own money, you could argue this has made the business less efficient at generating ROCE.
In summary, Nature Holdings is reinvesting funds back into the business for growth but unfortunately it looks like sales haven't increased much just yet. And in the last three years, the stock has given away 57% so the market doesn't look too hopeful on these trends strengthening any time soon. In any case, the stock doesn't have these traits of a multi-bagger discussed above, so if that's what you're looking for, we think you'd have more luck elsewhere.
On a separate note, we've found 2 warning signs for Nature Holdings you'll probably want to know about.
While Nature Holdings may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.