Are Jiahe Foods Industry Co., Ltd. (SHSE:605300) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Jiahe Foods Industry is CN¥8.97 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Jiahe Foods Industry is estimated to be 31% overvalued based on current share price of CN¥11.72
• Industry average of 1,384% suggests Jiahe Foods Industry's peers are currently trading at a higher premium to fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Jiahe Foods Industry Co., Ltd. (SHSE:605300) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Jiahe Foods Industry

The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥125.7m	CN¥134.6m	CN¥142.4m	CN¥149.5m	CN¥155.9m	CN¥162.0m	CN¥167.7m	CN¥173.3m	CN¥178.9m	CN¥184.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 8.93%	Est @ 7.11%	Est @ 5.83%	Est @ 4.94%	Est @ 4.31%	Est @ 3.87%	Est @ 3.57%	Est @ 3.35%	Est @ 3.20%	Est @ 3.10%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 6.8%	CN¥118	CN¥118	CN¥117	CN¥115	CN¥112	CN¥109	CN¥106	CN¥102	CN¥98.7	CN¥95.2

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥1.1b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥184m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (6.8%– 2.9%) = CN¥4.8b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥4.8b÷ ( 1 + 6.8%)¹⁰= CN¥2.5b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥3.5b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥11.7, the company appears potentially overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Jiahe Foods Industry as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Jiahe Foods Industry

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For Jiahe Foods Industry, we've compiled three additional items you should explore:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Jiahe Foods Industry that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does 605300's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.