Chang Lan Technology Group Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002879) Stock's Been Going Strong: Could Weak Financials Mean The Market Will Correct Its Share Price?

Simply Wall St · 09/28 01:40

Most readers would already be aware that Chang Lan Technology Group's (SZSE:002879) stock increased significantly by 11% over the past week. However, in this article, we decided to focus on its weak fundamentals, as long-term financial performance of a business is what ultimately dictates market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Chang Lan Technology Group's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for Chang Lan Technology Group

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Chang Lan Technology Group is:

4.9% = CN¥91m ÷ CN¥1.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. That means that for every CN¥1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated CN¥0.05 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Chang Lan Technology Group's Earnings Growth And 4.9% ROE

On the face of it, Chang Lan Technology Group's ROE is not much to talk about. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 6.9%. For this reason, Chang Lan Technology Group's five year net income decline of 23% is not surprising given its lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

That being said, we compared Chang Lan Technology Group's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 12% in the same 5-year period.

past-earnings-growth
SZSE:002879 Past Earnings Growth September 28th 2024

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Chang Lan Technology Group is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Chang Lan Technology Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Chang Lan Technology Group has a high three-year median payout ratio of 58% (that is, it is retaining 42% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. With only very little left to reinvest into the business, growth in earnings is far from likely.

Moreover, Chang Lan Technology Group has been paying dividends for six years, which is a considerable amount of time, suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer consistent dividends even though earnings have been shrinking. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 64% of its profits over the next three years. However, Chang Lan Technology Group's ROE is predicted to rise to 12% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.

Summary

Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on Chang Lan Technology Group. Because the company is not reinvesting much into the business, and given the low ROE, it's not surprising to see the lack or absence of growth in its earnings. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.