Calculating The Fair Value Of Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600546)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Shanxi Coal International Energy GroupLtd is CN¥10.53 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With CN¥11.56 share price, Shanxi Coal International Energy GroupLtd appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• The CN¥21.00 analyst price target for 600546 is 99% more than our estimate of fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600546) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Shanxi Coal International Energy GroupLtd

Is Shanxi Coal International Energy GroupLtd Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥2.76b	CN¥2.07b	CN¥1.72b	CN¥1.54b	CN¥1.43b	CN¥1.38b	CN¥1.35b	CN¥1.35b	CN¥1.36b	CN¥1.37b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -36.97%	Est @ -25.03%	Est @ -16.66%	Est @ -10.81%	Est @ -6.71%	Est @ -3.84%	Est @ -1.84%	Est @ -0.43%	Est @ 0.55%	Est @ 1.24%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.0%	CN¥2.5k	CN¥1.7k	CN¥1.3k	CN¥1.1k	CN¥934	CN¥824	CN¥742	CN¥678	CN¥626	CN¥582

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥11b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.4b× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.0%– 2.9%) = CN¥23b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥23b÷ ( 1 + 9.0%)¹⁰= CN¥9.8b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥21b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥11.6, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Shanxi Coal International Energy GroupLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.227. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Shanxi Coal International Energy GroupLtd

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Shanxi Coal International Energy GroupLtd, we've compiled three relevant elements you should consider:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 2 warning signs for Shanxi Coal International Energy GroupLtd we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does 600546's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.