A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Shree Renuka Sugars Limited (NSE:RENUKA)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Shree Renuka Sugars fair value estimate is ₹57.78
• Shree Renuka Sugars' ₹49.97 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• Peers of Shree Renuka Sugars are currently trading on average at a 476% premium

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Shree Renuka Sugars Limited (NSE:RENUKA) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Shree Renuka Sugars

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹6.36b	₹6.91b	₹7.47b	₹8.04b	₹8.63b	₹9.25b	₹9.90b	₹10.6b	₹11.3b	₹12.1b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 9.51%	Est @ 8.67%	Est @ 8.08%	Est @ 7.66%	Est @ 7.37%	Est @ 7.17%	Est @ 7.03%	Est @ 6.93%	Est @ 6.86%	Est @ 6.81%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 12%	₹5.7k	₹5.5k	₹5.3k	₹5.1k	₹4.9k	₹4.7k	₹4.4k	₹4.2k	₹4.0k	₹3.8k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹48b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (6.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 12%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹12b× (1 + 6.7%) ÷ (12%– 6.7%) = ₹237b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹237b÷ ( 1 + 12%)¹⁰= ₹75b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹123b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹50.0, the company appears about fair value at a 14% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Shree Renuka Sugars as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Shree Renuka Sugars

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Shree Renuka Sugars, there are three further items you should further research:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Shree Renuka Sugars that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NSEI every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.