CEE MARKETS-Forex gains led by zloty ahead of interest rate meeting

Reuters · 08/30 10:18
CEE MARKETS-Forex gains led by zloty ahead of interest rate meeting

- Central Eastern European currencies firmed on Friday, led higher by the Polish zloty, ahead of week's central bank meeting on interest rates, after a flash estimate inflation reading for August showed inflation edging higher.

Most emerging market currencies were higher on Friday as the dollar weakened ahead of crucial U.S. inflation data that could offer clues on the size of possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve month.

Data released on Friday in Poland meanwhile showed Poland's consumer inflation rising to 4.3% in August, slightly above expectations, driven mainly by rising energy prices.

Poland's rate setters, who have cited inflation uncertainty in their decisions on keeping borrowing costs steady since October, are expected to prolong their pause Wednesday, but their commentary will be scrutinised for signs of when easing could resume.

By 0926 GMT the Polish zloty EURPLN= was up 0.2% against the euro at 4.2755, at the centre point of the 4.24-4.31 range where it has been trading since mid-August.

"The 4.28 (level) attracts like a magnet ... We assume that if the zloty is close to this level, it is actually at a point of short-term equilibrium for the time being and is waiting for impulses that could break it from this point," Bank Millennium markets analyst Mateusz Sutowicz said.

"We are counting that September central bank meetings, including the local Monetary Policy Council, may be events that lead to minor changes in the financial markets."

Sutowicz said that today's inflation print wasn't impacting the zloty.

The Czech crown EURCZK= firmed 0.2% to 25.0250 per euro, hovering August's high hit earlier in the week.

Domestic demand fuelled by brisker government expenditure drove the Czech economy's slow recovery in the second quarter, updated statistics office data showed on Friday, with growth muted by a sluggish industrial performance.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= edged 0.1% higher to 392.50 per euro, also trading off its August high.



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1126 CET





CURRENCIES






Latest

Previous

Daily

Change



trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.0250

25.0615

+0.15%

-1.29%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

392.5000

393.0000

+0.13%

-2.37%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2755

4.2840

+0.20%

+1.61%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9775

4.9778

+0.01%

-0.06%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9200

117.0200

+0.09%

+0.28%

Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET










Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1587.09

1582.9900

+0.26%

+12.24%

Budapest

.BUX

72982.34

73193.79

-0.29%

+20.39%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2410.22

2403.14

+0.29%

+2.87%

Bucharest

.BETI

18293.25

18235.55

+0.32%

+19.01%











Spread

Daily





vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic





spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.3720

-0.0110

+102bps

+0bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.5920

-0.0100

+144bps

+1bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.8570

0.0080

+160bps

+3bps

Poland






2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.8290

-0.0740

+248bps

-6bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.2090

-0.0600

+306bps

-4bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.4620

-0.0840

+320bps

-6bps


FORWARD







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.93

3.61

3.36

4.37

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.57

6.18

5.78

6.51

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.74

5.44

4.98

5.85

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices




**************************************************************



(Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by David Holmes
)

((karl.badohal@thomsonreuters.com))

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